By Hanjo Fourie, Business Head: Underwriting – Agri Crop at Santam Specialist Solutions

Recently the South African Weather Service (SAWS) issued Orange Level 5 warnings for storms, hail and flooding across parts of Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal[1]. The high frequency and shifting nature of hailstorms now poses a significant threat to farmers in these regions, with direct consequences for agri-businesses and the country’s wider food system. 

These recent hailstorms have already generated significant losses. Direct loss typically relates to crop reduction and infrastructure damage, while packhouses, irrigation systems and vehicles can suffer severe collateral damage too. For commercial farmers, this disruption can affect production cycles and contracts, but smallholder farmers are even more vulnerable. Without insurance or financial buffers, they risk falling into poverty traps that are difficult to escape.

Hail losses also ripple far beyond individual farms and agri-producers. Reduced crop volumes can leave packhouses underutilised, affecting employment and operational efficiency. Damaged logistics infrastructure disrupts already fragile supply chains. Export markets are highly sensitive to cosmetic standards, so fruit with external blemishes may be downgraded to lower-value markets, reducing earnings and affecting trade relationships. For staple crops, broad losses can influence local availability, price stability and, in severe cases, food security.

Over the last 30 to 50 years, both the frequency and severity of hailstorms have increased. While long-term observational data remains patchy, available evidence points to more extreme rainfall, hail and damaging wind events. Even where the number of hail days in some regions has decreased, the individual events that do occur tend to be more intense, with a potential for larger hailstones. 

While regions such as Eastern Free State, Lesotho and the Highveld have long been recognised as hail hotspots, climate change is creating new patterns that make the threat far less predictable. Much of this unpredictability stems from broader climatic shifts. Anthropogenic warming is increasing low-level moisture and convective instability, providing more energy for the strong updrafts required to form large hailstones. At the same time, a rising freezing level means smaller hailstones melt before reaching the ground, leaving a greater proportion of larger, more damaging stones. 

Climate models also suggest spatial changes in storm hotspots. Regions historically considered lower risk may see greater hail activity, while traditional hotspots may experience different patterns and intensities. The influence of phenomena such as El Niño adds another layer of complexity, as years with high hail incidence can coincide with drier seasonal rainfall, creating counterintuitive outcomes. A lack of long-term, high-resolution hail data further complicates forecasting and risk assessment.

There is also evidence for shifts in the timing of hail seasons. Historically, hail is most common in the summer rainfall regions between October and March, peaking in November. Yet farmers are increasingly seeing extreme events fall outside these typical windows, along with greater variability within the season. For crops at critical growth stages, even a slight shift can have severe implications.

As a major summer grain, maize is particularly vulnerable during flowering and pollination. Hail during this period can lead to substantial yield losses or terminate the season entirely. Some producers may need to adjust planting dates to reduce exposure, but these decisions must balance hail risk against heat stress and moisture availability. High-value fruit crops such as citrus, grapes and stone fruit are particularly vulnerable to hail, as visual damage affects marketability and significant capital is invested per hectare. A single storm can undo a season’s worth of labour and investment.

In this environment, crop insurance provides a critical safety net. It provides financial protection that helps farmers recover without entering unsustainable debt cycles, while also improving access to credit, as insured farmers are viewed as lower risk by lenders. With this support, they are more able to invest in improved technologies and climate-resilient practices. At its core, crop insurance transfers the risk of extreme weather from the individual farmer to a broader risk pool, enabling long-term sector stability.

However, not all claims proceed smoothly. Delays or rejections often stem from non-compliance with policy conditions, such as planting outside regulated dates or failing to follow required fertilisation or pest management practices. Inadequate documentation, late reporting and misunderstandings of what the policy covers are also common. Farmers can avoid these pitfalls by working closely with brokers, keeping detailed records of all farming activities and reporting damage promptly.

There are, however, several misconceptions about agri-crop insurance that remain widespread, especially among emerging farmers. Many believe it is unaffordable or that payouts are unreliable. Others view insurance as a substitute for sound agricultural practice or assume it only benefits commercial-scale operations. 

While high premiums are indeed a barrier, more innovative, lower-cost products like index-based insurance are helping to broaden access for small-scale farmers and improve their ability to secure credit. As climate volatility increases, insurance will shift from a commercial farmer’s luxury to a fundamental part of every farmer’s holistic risk management strategy – protecting livelihoods and supporting the long-term sustainability of South African agriculture.